Highway 99
Monday, June 28, 2004
For those of you interested in my post from yesterday concerning expatriate Americans who don't want to return to the U.S. -- just to let you know, I've added a couple of updates to the post.
Better news out of Iraq than out of Canada, as the handover occurs two days early and, knock wood, without a hitch.
Of all the comments I've seen today remarking on the change, probably the best came from Mohammed at Iraq the Model. His post, titled "GO IRAQ GO....," comes across as downright joyful. Mohammed wraps up his message as follows:
Amen. And God bless the Iraqis like Mohammed and Omar, who kept faith, trusted in our good intentions, and sent us their stream of encouraging messages when some of us really needed to hear them. The establishment media tried to turn Iraq into another Vietnam. They might have succeeded. Alternative media was one reason they failed, and Iraq the Model was a significant part of that. When the history is written of how democracy came to the Middle East, Omar and his family will be remembered with honor.God bless Iraq and her people.
God bless America and her people.
God bless all the coalition forces who supported operation Iraqi freedom.
May God bless the souls of all those who sacrificed their lives to free Iraq.
Disappointing news out of Canada. I'm (holding my nose and) watching CBC coverage of the Canadian elections via C-SPAN, and they've called it for the Liberals. The good news is that Paul Martin will have to form a minority government this time, in contrast to the last three (?) Liberal victories, which all resulted in solid Liberal majorities.
Why the incumbent win, even though many Canadians appear disillusioned with the scandal-ridden Liberals? The consensus seems to be that too many people were unwilling to trust the Conservatives, falling back on the more familiar Liberals at the last minute. The fear of change seems to have been aggravated by a barrage of attack ads by the Liberals in the last couple of weeks. The result was a come-from-behind victory for the Liberals.
If this analysis is correct, it reminds me of the British general election of 1992, in which Labour and the Tories were neck-and-neck up to the last minute, and indeed most observers predicted that Labour would win by a nose. After Tory wins in 1979, 1983, and 1987, the voters were getting tired of the incumbents, and Labour was desperate for a win. It was a bitter disappointment for Labour when John Major pulled off his upset victory. Though tempted to go with Labour, too many voters decided at the last minute that Labour just couldn't be trusted. Memories of the disastrous Labour government of the 1970s were still too fresh. So the British Tories won again, though with a greatly reduced majority, like the Canadian Liberals this time (although the Liberals have a greater margin of safety than John Major did).
The hopeful part, from my point of view, is that before the next election Labour was able to win the trust of the voters and subsequently a majority of their votes in 1997. So the Canadian Conservatives can capitalize on the Liberals' losses, with some skill and luck.
Two flies in the Canadian ointment, however: (1) Both the Conservatives and the Liberals lost seats today compared to the last election (at least as of the moment I am writing this); it was the far left-wing NDP that really improved its performance; and (2) Paul Martin would have to produce as dismal a premiership as John Major did in order for the Conservatives to really come back big next time. It was a combination of change in the British Labour Party (from Old Labour to New) and voter disgust with "Tory sleaze" that produced the big 1997 Labour win. Can Martin really mess up that badly? Well, maybe, if he forms a coalition government with the NDP, and they pull the government leftward, and the resulting policies have nasty effects on the Canadian economy, health service, military readiness, etc. As so often happens with parties in opposition, Canada's loss would be the Conservatives' gain.
Update 10:30 p.m. Leave it to Fox News to see the glass as half full. At their 10:30 break, they reported the news out of Canada with the on-screen headline LIBERALS LOSE CONTROL.
Well, it's true, isn't it?
I love Fox.
Sunday, June 27, 2004
Good riddance.
Yeah, be careful, you could end up in the concentration camp where Michael Moore, Norman Mailer, and Al Franken are being imprisoned for purposes of re-education and political rehabilitation!Some American expats also express dismay with what they see as the political changes that have taken place in their country since Sept. 11, 2001.
"The United States has changed since 9/11," said Majetic, who was based in Indianapolis, near his wife's hometown. "We grew up liberals but now there are no civil liberties there, the media is biased, there is no freedom of speech. Why should we move back there?"
Fucking idiot.
It is noteworthy, though hardly surprising, that a person who describes himself as having grown up a liberal should uncritically swallow every anti-American lie put out by the media in Vienna, Austria. When was the last time you heard an American liberal defend America?
I often wish there could be a mass movement of American liberals to Europe and of enterprising, self-reliant Europeans to America. Everybody'd end up a lot more content that way. Perhaps such an exchange is already happening on a very small scale.
Update 6/28/04. Tom at the Bluebook Authority, who's been feeling a bit discouraged lately anyway, had an interesting reaction to this post:
Tom, I don't think you're going to have to come home to a Kerry Administration. After two to three months of brutal bad news, magnified by a Bush-hating media establishment, Bush is not only holding his own with Kerry, he's actually pulled slightly ahead. That's a pretty remarkable accomplishment in itself. But after today's surprise handover in Iraq, and barring unforseen catastrophe such as another 9/11-style attack, both the economy and Iraq should continue to improve, giving Bush the chance to widen his lead. Anything can happen between now and November, of course, but I've been strangely optimistic all along that everything will turn out all right in the end. (And even in the event of another severe attack, it's an open question as to whether Bush would be hurt or helped.)Highway 99 describes the bitter feelings felt by a couple of expats regarding a return home.
I have to agree but for different reasons. I'm starting to think that we can't go home either because we no longer fit in with American culture. Based on what I see, I could never go home to live under the mamsi-pansy Kerry Administration. I can't go home to a place where "Fahrenheit 9-11" becomes a national blockbuster.
And as far as "Fahrenheit 9-11" goes, I'm guessing (and, yes, hoping) that the big numbers this past weekend had less to do with widespread disillusionment among the general public than with pent-up demand among the Moore-loving, Bush-hating true believers. Whether we like it or not, Moore is currently a genuine cultural phenomenon, and there was bound to be a burst of enthusiasm when his movie came out. If and when Moore's conspiracy theories appear to be taking hold among the general public, especially among uncommitted voters, then I'll start to worry. Until then, I'll figure he's just preaching to the choir.
(For some anecdotal evidence for this point of view, see Friday's Best of the Web -- scroll down to the heading "A Cult Movie." The Village Voice asked people who'd seen the movie whether it had changed their opinions. The answer consistently was no, it had not changed any opinions, it had only reinforced already-existing opinions.)
Update II, 6/28/04. Robert at Expat Yank also notes Tom's discouragement and helps put the "Fahrenheit 9-11" box-office figures in perspective by comparing it to, of all things, The Waterboy.
A couple of bloggers and TV commentators have noted that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's promise to fight "until Islamic rule is back on earth" is historically inaccurate, since Islamic rule never dominated the earth.
The commentators might be misinterpreting Zarqawi's declaration. I wonder if Zarqawi is referring not to recorded history but rather to some Edenic golden age, a pure primordial state unsullied by original sin in which "Islamic rule" -- obedience or submission to the will of God -- reigned throughout the universe.
Fundamentalist Christians believe that such a state of obedience existed "before the Fall" and will be restored after ferocious battles between the forces of good and the forces of evil culminate in the reinstatement of God's direct rule over the earth.
Do fundamentalist Muslims believe in a similar view of history? Might Zarqawi believe he is taking part in an Armageddon-style battle that will usher in the end of history and result in a pre-lapsarian "Islamic rule" being "back on earth?"
Saturday, June 26, 2004
Congress would be a paradise of kindness and civility, if only it weren't for those mean mean mean old Republicans! At least that's what Jim Abrams of the Associated Press seems to think.
Friday, June 25, 2004
Considering all the nasty propaganda the Associated Press churns out on a regular basis, I can't say I'm sorry to learn that the AP is having financial difficulties.
Satellite photos are helping confirm the destruction of Sudanese villages by the Janjaweed militias.
The government keeps denying any plans of bringing back the draft, but the folks at NewsMax don't seem to be buying it.
Thursday, June 24, 2004
Interesting exchange:
Jeez, isn't it hard to imagine how a guy with attitudes like these would end up on trial for the murder of his ex-wife?GRETA VAN SUSTEREN
All right. Let me ask you about, just a couple of high-profile cases. Michael Jackson, and Kobe Bryant. What are your thoughts on those?
O.J. SIMPSON
Well, I don't see how either one could be, uh, [SIGHS] with "reasonable doubt," or whatever, be convicted, you know? Uh.
GRETA VAN SUSTEREN
You don't think - ? You don't know how they could be convicted?
O.J. SIMPSON
Could be convicted. I, I just, at this point, can't see it. I, uh - . As far as I am concerned, uh, they are "innocent until proven guilty." Nothing that I have heard, has proven them guilty to me. Uh. In Kobe's case, uh, uh, I think every high-profile, and not high-profile athlete, have found themself in a situation like that before. I have certainly in my life, have had girls come to the room, and go back, and come to the room, and walk to, and say "no," or say whatever, whatever, whatever, whatever. And when I was a kid growing up, just about every girl said "no" once. [LAUGHTER] You know, they had to, because you'd, you'd think they were a slut or something. But I just can't believe that, that, uh, this girl could continue to come to the room that way. From what I know from girls, even my oldest daughter, uh, about Kobe, is he is a complete gentleman, you know? Uh. And, uh, and, uh, in situations like that, I, I don't know. In my opinion, "date rape," and "stranger rape," are two different things [LAUGHTER] entirely, you know? Uh. "Date rape," you have really got to - .
GRETA VAN SUSTEREN
You believe there is a difference?
O.J. SIMPSON
I think a "date rape," you really - . All these "shield laws" and things that they have. You know? Both persons' credibility is on the line. And to me, when you have a person who, who knows a person, uh, it's gotta be open. I mean, in the courtroom, uh, in the court of law, you gotta be able to look at both persons' character, character, completely in a situation like that.
GRETA VAN SUSTEREN
How about, how about - ?
O.J. SIMPSON
Plus, plus, from the way I understand how they did it. You know, any adult, [LAUGHTER] who has had any active sex life, understands that you can't have sex that way without both parties helping out. [LAUGHTER] It's impossible.
On page 100 of the June 12th Economist:
I keep saying that Republicans, or their sympathizers, should be publicizing European unemployment figures like this one in simple, inexpensive TV ads. It would change the context of the whole campaign debate. Americans don't know what the consequences of European socialism are, and they need to be told. Repeatedly.Germany's struggling economy is showing some signs of vigour. Industrial production rose in April by 2.2%, the biggest rise since October. Inflation in wholesale prices ran at 3.6% in the year to May, the fastest pace in over three years. Exports rose strongly in April. But not all the news was good: the ranks of the unemployed rose for the fourth straight month in May, by 9,000. The jobless rate was unchanged at 10.5%.
Tuesday, June 22, 2004
Michael Ledeen sets out a plausible hypothesis connecting yesterday's seizure by the Iranians of British ships and officers; attacks on the oil infrastructure in several countries, espcially Iraq; Iran's race to build nuclear weapons; and the mullahs' desire to see George Bush defeated in November. Yet more reason to brace ourselves for some nasty attacks as November draws nearer.
I wish reasonable (pro-American) news media, like Fox or the Washington Times, would start mentioning these highly probable scenarios to the public as a way of partially inoculating voters against the effects a successful attack would create. Forewarned really is forearmed, even when the attack is economic and psychological rather than in flesh and blood.
Fredrik Norman provides a translation of Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson's reaction upon meeting with George Bush. According to Persson, Bush is
Fredrik continues his translation with Persson's comments on European anti-Americanism:intelligent, well-read and a very nice guy indeed. It's rare to meet a politician at his level who is so up-to-date on details. He even knew the Swedish unemployment rate. Bush is easy to speak with, makes you feel respected and seen and he gives you the chance to make your case. He's really under-appreciated in Europe. He's described as a person who doesn't know what he wants. That's not true. He's goal-oriented and knows exactly what he's doing.
Pretty impressive. And this from the prime minister of a country that -- if I'm not mixing up my Scandanavians -- did not join the Coalition in Iraq. And it was not said for an American audience, either; Persson's remarks about Bush and America were given to a major Swedish newspaper, Aftonbladet.I never had that blind hate towards the American society, the USA is a fantastic nation. Rich, large and complex -- which is often forgotten. There's not one political view or a criticism that's not better articulated in America than in Sweden.
I have now read so many stories about Europeans who were pleasantly surprised upon meeting the real George Bush that I think I'll do a round-up post on the subject one of these days.
Sunday, June 20, 2004
In writing Friday's post on desegregation of the military, I looked through several documents that I didn't end up linking to. One in particular caught my eye:
I had no idea campaign aides were referring to "talking points" at least as far back as 1952. In politics especially, the more things change, the more they stay the same.GENERAL EISENHOWER HAS ORDERED INTEGRATION OF WHITE AND NEGRO TROOPS
in the European Command. The order went into effect last month, means that as much as one-third of some units will be colored. It also means Eisenhower will have a good talking-point in winning Negro support for his candidacy.
Friday, June 18, 2004
It is striking how many flags are still at half-mast. In my neighborhood, flags at a business park/airport, a high school, an Applebee's restaurant, and a Carl's Jr. restaurant were all still at half-mast today; another one at a mobile home park was fully raised today but was still at half-staff yesterday. Several of my neighbors have flags on their property. Most of these are fixed flags, but a couple are on flagpoles, and these were still at half-staff today.
They have been this way for two weeks. I'm surprised by this, just as I was surprised by the initial reaction of the crowds to the news of Reagan's death. Not that flag-lowering or crowds appearing per se surprised me; but rather the size of the crowds, in both California and Washington, and the length of time in which people have voluntarily kept their flags lowered -- it's the intensity of the reaction that has surprised me.
I suspect it has something to do with many people's realization that they didn't sufficiently appreciate Reagan when he was president. It's a realization I share. In fact, Reagan's death has been a milestone by which I have suddenly become aware of how much I've changed since the 1980s.
On July 26, 1948, President Harry S Truman signed Executive Order 9981, which included the statement, "It is hereby declared to be the policy of the President that there shall be equality of treatment and opportunity for all persons in the armed services without regard to race, color, religion, or national origin," thereby desegregating the U.S. military.
The order was the major turning point in a process that had been going on for years and was to continue for several years more.
It's an interesting question why Truman was the one to finally make the racial integration policy official. Why Truman, and not FDR?
After all, Truman was extremely old-fashioned in many ways, especially where race was concerned. The Roosevelt administration had been extremely interested in the idea of desegregation of the military; it would seem to have fit perfectly with the spirit of the New Deal. Yet, the Tuskegee Airmen notwithstanding, radical and sweeping reform of the armed forces had to wait for Truman. Why?
I haven't done any research on this subject, so I can only guess at the answer. But it seems reasonable to assume that, besides all the usual forces of inertia and resistance to change, the primary complication was the war itself.
The Allied victory in World War II now seems to have a glow of inevitability about it. But that's not the way things were. Victory came only at the cost of vast effort and with several enormously lucky breaks. There were a few points at which things came close to being lost.
Pressure was exerted on the military and the government in both directions, in favor of desegregation and in favor of keeping things the way they were.
It's easy now to assume that any resistance to change on the part of the military could be completely accounted for by bigotry, and that if various military commissions offered as a reason to stay segregated the possibility of serious disruption of the war effort, this was a lie, a fig leaf.
Yet even someone who thoroughly disapproves of racial segregation would have to admit that the threat of disruption was a real one and had to be taken seriously by anyone with responsibility for conducting the war.
Franklin Roosevelt, I think it is safe to say, was not a traditionalist when it came to race. I assume that he did not have it in for blacks, that he had no desire to keep them down.
But Franklin Roosevelt was also a pre-1968 Democrat, the kind who took national defense seriously, the kind we haven't seen in awhile. Roosevelt knew that priorities had to be set. And he set the correct number-one priority: winning the war. Everything else -- everything else -- was going to have to yield to that one overwhelming necessity.
Protests that did occur were dealt with harshly.
And in the long run this setting of hard priorities, even the harsh suppression of dissent, served a great purpose. After all, in conquering the Nazis, the Allies freed millions of non-whites all over the world from oppression far more vicious than that which the non-white soldiers in the American military were enduring.
Roosevelt was right to put the war effort ahead of the desegregation effort. Truman was right to desegregate as it became safe to do so. It was a question of putting first things first. In the early 1940s, desegregation could wait. First, we had a war to win.
I had been meaning to write about all this for some time now, ever since it became clear that Andrew Sullivan had turned against George Bush when Bush came out (so to speak) in favor of a federal marriage amendment. And there was no doubt in my mind that that is in fact when Andrew's attitude changed. Until recently, I had read Andrew's blog virtually every day, and there was no mistaking the fact that things changed completely on the very day Bush made the FMA announcement. That was the break point.
This was an aggravating change to watch, because Andrew had for so long put such an emphasis on the War on Terror being the most important issue of our time. I wholeheartedly agreed. I know Andrew had other problems with Bush besides the FMA -- mainly Bush's free spending -- but it was the FMA that sent things spinning out of control.
Let me make it clear that I consider the 2004 presidential election the next major battle in the War on Terror. First, John Kerry and the Democratic Party would be an utter disaster for America in terms of national defense; I don't care what tough-sounding noises Kerry makes while campaigning, I don't believe a word of it. Once in office, he'd be another Jimmy Carter (God help us). Second, even if I didn't believe that Kerry would be a pathetic commander-in-chief, his election would be seen as a massive victory by every enemy America's got, and we cannot afford to let that happen. In short, whether you're talking about the substance or the perception, Kerry's election would be a catastrophe. (For more along these lines, see Sir Francis Drake at The Edge of England's Sword.)
So I take Bush's reelection as part of the war effort, and I take the war effort as more important than all other issues put together. Certainly, it is more important than the FMA, which is probably dead in the water anyway.
Don't get me wrong. I am against the FMA. I consider gay marriage, like racial desegregation of the armed forces, to be both right and inevitable. It will happen in at least a few places before too many more years pass.
But as issues go, it cannot hold a candle to the war. The war has to be fought with everything we've got NOW. Gay marriage can wait; the war effort cannot.
And just as World War II overturned a world order that harmed non-white people far more than segregation in the military did, so the War on Terror, and dragging the Arab Middle East out of the Dark Ages, will overturn a world order that harms gay people far more than the lack of full-fledged marriage does. (It's ironic that I once saw Andrew Sullivan on C-SPAN giving a speech in which he said to a largely-gay audience something like, "We must never forget that while we are coping with discrimination here, there are millions of gay people in the rest of the world who are literally fighting for their lives every single day." I'm paraphrasing from memory, but that was the idea he was expressing. Has Andrew forgotten that he ever gave such a speech?)
I am disappointed that Andrew seems to have decided that the issue that matters more than all the others put together is not terrorism, but gay marriage. Because I agree with Franklin Roosevelt's reasoning: Even desirable social changes can wait a few years; as I may have mentioned once or twice, we've got a war to win.
Update. Always gratifying when I find someone I admire thinking along the same lines I am -- and here's an example from Roger Simon.
Wednesday, June 16, 2004
I had been planning on wishing everybody a happy Bloomsday, but considering my mood lately concerning Irish anti-Americanism, the hell with it.
I want to write something tomorrow on the reason the Andrew Sullivan situation makes me think about why it was Harry Truman and not Franklin Roosevelt who integrated the U.S. armed forces. And why I am not surprised to be learning what I'm learning about Andrew.
Claudia Rosett, who has been doing such an excellent job unearthing the UN Oil-for-Food scandal, has an update on the latest revelations of UN corruption in just the past 72 hours.
Hey, it's nice to be vindicated! I'd heard of Ensign's proposed legislation and had wanted to learn more about it but hadn't gotten around to it yet. It sounds like it would be a good start, but don't stop there: We need to hold off paying our dues until the UN adopts current U.S. standards of corporate accounting and reporting; then we need to boot them off American soil. Make the tranzis live in that culture they seem to adore so much: Ship them off to Saudi Arabia.Someone needs to help this institution, and it's not a consulting team hired by the same institution, nor is it a batch of investigators operating under terms defined by the U.N., nor is it a grand gathering of staff members being urged to risk reprisals by telling tales of earlier reprisals. A better place to start is the proposal by Sen. John Ensign that the U.S. withhold part of the U.N.'s budget until the institution comes clean on Oil for Food. Better yet would be to tackle the system that engendered Oil for Food. To do that would probably require setting up a competing international institution, based on openness and accountability--and give the U.N. a run for its money. For now, I'm working around to the belief that in the matter of reforming the U.N., the only thing worse than having the U.N. ignore a problem is to have the U.N. investigate it.
It's only been one day, but some interesting letters have already arrived on Mark Steyn's website adding to the picture of Irish anti-Americanism. If you plan on reading them, better do it soon; letters don't stick around Mark's site forever.
Tuesday, June 15, 2004
Before I file my lawsuit against Mark Steyn (see previous post), let me slip in one more compliment. I'm talking about a paragraph in Mark's column "Starsky and Putsch" (scroll down) that clarifies a point I hadn't sufficiently appreciated:
Quite true. In fact, I so appreciate Mark pointing it out, I've just decided not to sue him.Just over a year ago, in one of those wretched Security Council performances before the Gulf War, the French Foreign Minister, Dominique de Villepin, turned to Colin Powell and offered the umpteenth variation of the familiar argument that, if we Europeans are resistant to ze idea of war, it is because we have seen so much of ze horrors of ze war. The reality is the other way round: the reason they've seen so much of the horrors of war is because they're so resistant to the idea of it - until it's too late and conflagration is all that's left.
You can sleep soundly at night once again, Mark.
Truly, great minds think alike.
December 24, 2003. Highway 99 publishes "When Irish Eyes Aren't Smiling," a post contrasting the blind sentimentality of Americans toward Ireland with the vicious bigotry of the Irish toward America.
June 15, 2004. SteynOnline publishes "When Irish Eyes Aren't Smiling," a column contrasting the blind sentimentality of Americans toward Ireland with the vicious bigotry of the Irish toward America.
I'm consulting with my attorneys concerning plagiarism and copyright infringement. Oh yeah, we're talking major lawsuit here. Mark Steyn's got some 'splainin' to do.
Glad to be able to report the discovery of yet another pro-Anglosphere blog, this one by an American-born gentleman who has been living in the UK since 1978. George Miller is his name, and I've already blogrolled his site, London Calling. I encourage you to sample it.
Monday, June 14, 2004
European election results are in, and the major parties are licking their wounds. This isn't true just in Britain, it appears to be true across the continent.
Mark Steyn on Britain:
EURSOC on Britain:Well, they may be Little Englanders, but they're getting bigger, and the big parties are getting littler. In Sunday's results, the only two governing parties most Britons have ever known couldn't muster 50 per cent of the vote between them.
. . . as Peter Oborne pointed out in last week's Spectator, poll after poll shows that up to half the British electorate wants out of the EU . . .
That's why Labour's decline to its pre-Great War vote share is as telling as the hit the Tories took. Neither of Britain's two main parties reflects the real division on the critical issue of the day.
And EURSOC on Ireland:At the time of going to press, the UK IP had won 16.8 percent of the vote - double their score in the previous Euro election. The Labour party, with 23 percent of the vote, looks like getting its worst results since before the First World War. The opposition Tories, who expected to rout Labour, managed to win 27 percent of the vote: The Conservative's [sic] lowest share of a national vote since 1832.
And EURSOC on Belgium:Sinn Fein, the political front organisation for the IRA terror group, won a seat in Ireland's EU election and is expected to win another in Northern Ireland. . . . Like the UK IP, Sinn Fein ran a fiercely anti-EU campaign.
And EURSOC on France:Seperatist [sic] party Vlaams Blok pushed the ruling Liberal Party into third place in Belgium's Euro-vote. . . . The Liberal Party leader, Guy Verhofstadt, was a vocal opponent of the war in Iraq. Last year he played "Mini-Me" to France's Jacques Chirac and Germany's Gerhard Schroeder when he hosted the "praline summit" of anti-war leaders.
Medienkritik's translator, Ray D., on Germany:And as for the major opponents of the Iraq war? France's Jacques Chirac and Germany's Gerhard Schroeder were among the biggest losers.
. . . Chirac's UMP party fared even worse. In what was France's lowest ever election turnout, the President's party secured only 16.6 percent of the vote, far behind the mainstream opposition Socialists who pulled in 28.9 percent.
. . . France's numerous extreme-left groups, who led the noisiest campaigns abetted by sympathetic media coverage, barely registered on polls. However, Philippe de Villiers and Charles Pasqua, who lead 'Sovereignist' anti-EU parties, did well: De Villiers' party scored 7% of votes.
Aside from the anti-EU angle itself, there's another benefit: This is sure to take some of the heat off of Blair; how can anyone claim that Labour's poor showing was due to "the Iraq effect" when the leaders of France, Germany, and Belgium -- central Europe's own Axis of Weasels -- took a worse shellacking?The European parliamentary election confirmed a clear trend in German politics: The SPD and Chancellor Schroeder are on their way out. Today, Sunday, June 13, the Socialists registered their worst election loss in postwar history . . . The conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) took advantage of the Socialist's [sic] collapse to claim two times as many votes with a projected 45% result, giving them the largest number of seats from Germany's 99 designated seats in the European parliament. . . .
The question now is whether the captain, Schroeder, will go down with the ship, or jump overboard before it is too late. . . . If the current trend continues, it is unlikely that the Chancellor will politically survive 2004. . . .
How much longer can a party supported by only 22% of the populace govern?
Sunday, June 13, 2004
Yesterday I looked at what voters were telling some YouGov pollsters and contrasted it with the dishonest way the media were reporting the local and European elections in Britain.
Today Sky News is predicting, based on more YouGov poll data, that the UK Independence Party will get 18% of the popular vote and 18 seats in the European Parliament.
If it actually works out this way, it would be bad news for those Labourites who want the European Constitution approved by the British electorate (and Blair is one of those Labourites) but it would be much worse news for the Tories, who are likely to lose a big chunk of their usual voters to the UKIP.
In a welcome and unexpected development, the pro-American Conservative Party has pulled ahead in the run-up to the Canadian national elections. Collin May has been reporting each stage of the campaign, beginning with this post on May 22; as I write this, his latest post on the subject is from last Thursday, June 10. Just keep scrolling; there's plenty of good news.
Cross your fingers and, if you are a praying person, say a prayer for Stephen Harper. His victory would be the best thing to happen to Canadian-American relations in a decade.
Tonecluster has a terrific rant on the vital subject of what is and what isn't tyranny. Good idea to read this in conjunction with my last post, for some welcome perspective.
Egad, now it's being reported that alcohol abuse was so rampant at Abu Ghraib there was actually an Alcoholics Anonymous chapter at the prison. Another claim is that prostitutes were brought in, though this latter claim is disputed. (*groan*) Let's hope this doesn't result in another orgy of media overkill to rival any orgies that might have gone on at the prison.
InternalMemos.com has a document that appears to be a classified memo to Pentagon employees instructing them on how to behave re the leak of the Taguba Report to the media. (Interesting that they misspell Taguba's name throughout the memo.)
Some lighter news on the defense industry: On the page that links to the Pentagon memo, two items below it, is a memo titled "Bathrooms," sent out to Northrop Grumman employees, which begins, "It has been brought to our attention that there may be a possible case of Pubic Lice in one of our restrooms. . . ."
You have to pay to read the rest of that one, and I didn't feel sufficiently motivated.
Light blogging the past 48 hours due to family activities. I took notes as I was watching the services for Ronald Reagan on Friday, and hope to post those later.
Saturday, June 12, 2004
Labour evidently took a pounding in the European and local elections (see previous post). Sky News commissioned a YouGov poll to coincide with the election and came up with some interesting explanations:
So, how are the media portraying the situation?Despite the finding [that a majority of voters thought Blair was too close to Bush on Iraq], the poll found that government policy in Iraq was the least important issue determining how people cast their vote.
Just 5% of respondents felt that it was an important issue, with improving public services such as health and education at the top of the list with 46%.
Reuters: [Update: The story has been moved to archives on the Reuters website; the new link is here.]
The Scotsman:Humbled Blair faces party anguish
A humbled Tony Blair has returned to Britain to face Labour Party critics after a voter backlash against the invasion of Iraq led to an unprecedented trouncing in local elections.
A lot of papers used a story by Ed Johnson of the AP; its first paragraph:Blair counts cost of war after hammering
Tony Blair was today counting the political cost of the war in Iraq following Labour's hammering in the local council elections.
The Chicago Sun-Times gives the story the headline "Blair's Labor [sic] Party spanked in Britain's local elections," while the Seattle Post Intelligencer's headline claims "Blair pays price for Iraq war in elections."Prime Minister Tony Blair took a beating as his governing Labour Party fell to third place Friday in Britain's local elections, a result he and colleagues blamed on voter anger over the war in Iraq.
Do you notice any disconnect between what the voters themselves were telling YouGov about their motivations, and what the media were telling the world about the voters' motivations?
Gosh, if you didn't know better, you might almost think that the reporters were letting themselves be influenced by preconceptions, and had the stories written in advance!
I wonder if anyone in politics or the media will have the temerity to point out the blatant contradiction between the reality and the reporters' description of it?
More to the point, why don't Blair and Bush point it out themselves? Repeatedly? And aggressively? Their lack of a more vigorous self-defense is getting exasperating.
Friday, June 11, 2004
Wednesday, June 09, 2004
Is NATO just a dead man walking? The reason I ask is that, no matter what the legal status of NATO as a going concern, its original reason for being is now defunct. NATO was meant to be a "mutual defense pact" that, in practical terms, worked out to be an arrangement whereby weak and defenseless Europe sheltered under the eagle's wing and the Soviets were threatened with annihilation if they tried to roll across the middle of the continent.
And that protective function is no longer an option, because any American president who placed one American soldier's life in jeopardy to protect France or Germany today would probably be impeached.
So, is NATO useless as it concerns our relationship with France and Germany?
No. I can think of one important reason to remain in a formal alliance with those two countries, even if we never actually trust them, or expect help from them, or are willing to give help to them, ever again.
That reason can be summed up in one sentence:
Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.
So George Bush has had his warmest meeting in more than a year with Gerhard Schroeder (see previous post)? Perhaps he needs to have a talk with David Kaspar of David's Medienkritik:
Why don't we tell this Eurotrash to go to hell?German Chancellor Schroeder wants to write a mystery novel with Mankell about "Bush, USA and Iraq"
Berlin (dpa)-
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has made an offer to Swedish mystery author Henning Mankell to co-write a "Crime Story" about George Bush, the USA and the Iraq war. "But much later," added the Chancellor on the n-tv show "Sandra Maischberger."
Explain to me again why we need the French and the Germans for ANYTHING.
The main thing I have against Bush is that he's not nearly unilateral enough.
I'd like to play ball with Chirac, all right, by sticking a baseball bat up his ass.US President George Bush proposed a NATO role in Iraq at the Group of Eight summit on Wednesday but the main opponent of the war, French President Jacques Chirac, said the alliance had no mission there. . . .
"There has been a remarkable change in the American foreign policy," said the German chancellor. US officials described Bush's meeting with Schroeder on Tuesday as the warmest between the two leaders in more than a year.
"American colleagues understood they have to play ball and they did play ball," said Chirac.
The theory -- or perhaps the face-saving public rationale -- seems to be that it does no harm to let the French and the Germans indulge in this sort of bragging, in the interest of keeping the alliance together.
It doesn't look that way to me. I think it's done a great deal of harm over the years to allow the French -- and until recently it was generally just the French -- to get away with this nonsense unchecked and unpunished.
If the bastards don't want to be our allies, and it seems clear to me at least that they don't, why do we keep begging them to be our allies? We don't need them as much as they need us, and we should let them know that in no uncertain terms.
Threaten to pull out of NATO. Let them contemplate what NATO would be without America. (Answer: nothing.)
If they think they can defend themselves using their proposed candy-ass toy-soldier European defense force, well, let them.
And let the British contemplate a future in which their children's and grandchildren's ultimate security rests with the military prowess and goodwill of the French and the Germans. That ought to awaken a few latent, atavistic fears.
Is the objection that the French and Germans wouldn't then share any vital intelligence data with us? Very well then, play hardball: If they won't share with us, we won't share with them; they have plenty to worry about concerning the threat of Islamofascism in their own future. They could hurt us in this passive-aggressive way, but we could hurt them too. Make it plain that we would.
Is the objection that we need other countries to share the cost and the personnel burden? There are other ways we could save on American blood and treasure. Cut off funding to the United Nations until it agrees to complete financial transparency. Withdraw more American soldiers from South Korea and Germany; withdraw all American soldiers, except perhaps for a handful of intelligence officers, from less important countries like Spain and Iceland. There are potential savings all over the place.
The current relationship with France and Germany must not be allowed to continue.
The issue of The Atlantic Monthly I referenced in my last post also contained an article by Gregg Easterbrook on private space travel.
I might add here that this issue was possibly the last -- certainly it was one of the last -- to be edited by Michael Kelly before he became the first journalist killed in the Iraq war.
About a year ago, Robert Baer, the former CIA agent who was stationed in the Middle East for many years and who wrote the book Sleeping with the Devil about America's relationship with the Saudis, was interviewed by The Atlantic Monthly concerning the vulnerability of the Saudi oil industry to terrorist sabotage. Baer's predictions make for unsettling reading today, as it appears that some of what he predicted has started to come true.
An article by Baer that appeared in the dead-tree edition of the magazine has been de-linked on the website, apparently at the author's request in the interest of book sales. I sympathize with Baer wanting to sell books, but it's a shame the article, "The Fall of the House of Saud," is no longer readily available; I read it in May 2003 and it gave me an understanding I hadn't had before of how corrupt the Saudi royal family is, why ordinary Saudis hate them so much, and how unsustainable the whole situation in Saudi Arabia appears to be. Not comforting information, but interesting and increasingly necessary information.
Courtesy of Farmer Joe at the Urban Farmhouse, who got it from Bill at INDC Journal, here is a fisking by the New England Republican of NBC's editing of the video and transcript of a Bush interview by Tom Brokaw. The fisking is long and detailed and must have taken a lot of time and concentration, and NER deserves a great deal of credit for bringing it to us.
John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge of The Economist have an analysis of why the American conservative movement is unique.
Tuesday, June 08, 2004
Paramedic Reynolds at Random Acts of Reality reports,
Good grief. Does this sort of thing happen often?Today my patients included a baby who decided to catapult itself out of it's mother's birth canal-"bungee-jumping" using the umbilical cord and landing on the floor.
Luckily mother and baby were both fine.
The media coverage of Reagan's death has apparently been largely positive. I say "apparently" because I've been splitting my news-viewing between C-SPAN and Fox News, neither of which I regard as part of the news establishment, so I'm getting descriptions of the mainstream coverage second-hand.
This respectful attitude was mystifying at first, because I well remember what kind of coverage the news media gave Reagan back in the day. Respectful it was not.
Yesterday the first signs of anti-Reagan backlash began to show up. Also yesterday, Peggy Noonan described her reaction to all the positive coverage and made a prediction that the left-wing media hacks who are praising Reagan now will explode after Friday's funeral and send their bile splattering all over creation next weekend.
While I found the atmosphere of the coverage downright weird, it hadn't occurred to me that the reporters were simply saving up their bile for the right moment. It should have occurred to me, though: Basically that's what happened in press coverage of Bush after 9/11. They were respectful for awhile, but at their first opportunity, when they finally thought they could start getting away with it again, they lit into Bush and haven't let up on him yet.
It will be interesting to see how close to the bull's eye Peggy Noonan came with her comments -- will the media hold off until next weekend before dumping on Reagan? No matter the exact timing, I expect she's right in her general expectations. It would be asking too much to expect the MSM to give Reagan his due, even now, when they ought to know better.
More vindication for Reagan, this time on his economic policies.
I knew the European Union countries weren't doing too well economically compared to the United States, but apparently the situation is worse than I thought. Stephen Pollard has the details on just how badly the EU is falling behind.
This would also seem to back up what Dinesh D'Souza reported concerning American versus European standards of living.
Monday, June 07, 2004
When Reagan was actually in office, I didn't find him all that impressive. For one thing, I was almost completely apolitical; I voted, but that was about it. For another thing, I still believed most of what the media told me. Cracks were beginning to appear in the facade, but for the most part, if the media portrayed someone as an amiable dunce, I bought the act. Those cracks that appeared in the 80s grew into gaping crevasses in the 90s, and I reappraised a lot of what I'd been told over the previous decades; and one of the people I reappraised was Ronald Reagan.
I wish I had had access years ago to information like this:
Or this eye-opening 1975 interview with Reason magazine (which I now subscribe to, but which in 1975 I had never heard of), in which Reagan explains his political philosophy in explicitly libertarian terms:I first met Ronald Reagan, along with my wife Anne, in the late summer of 1965 while he was traveling up and down California seeking to determine if there was sufficient public interest in his running for governor. We spent two days with him on the road and in the back seat of his car. At the end of the second day we were invited to his home in Pacific Palisades overlooking Los Angeles. He and his wife Nancy went into the kitchen to make some iced tea, affording me the opportunity to inspect the books in the shelves lining the living room. They were not Book of the Month or Reader's Digest selections, but real histories and biographies, studies of economics and politics. I remember three books in particular: Witness by Whittaker Chambers; The Law by Frederic Bastiat, a 19th century French classical liberal; and Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt. Not the usual reading for a Hollywood actor or a would-be politician. And the books had obviously been read--pages were dog-eared, passages were underlined. Here was no Hollywood puppet dancing at the end of someone's string but a deeply read thoughtful conservative.
Amiable dunce, my ass.REASON: Governor Reagan, you have been quoted in the press as saying that you're doing a lot of speaking now on behalf of the philosophy of conservatism and libertarianism. Is there a difference between the two?
REAGAN: If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer just as liberalism is really a misnomer for the liberals--if we were back in the days of the Revolution, so-called conservatives today would be the Liberals and the liberals would be the Tories. The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is.
Now, I can't say that I will agree with all the things that the present group who call themselves Libertarians in the sense of a party say, because I think that like in any political movement there are shades, and there are libertarians who are almost over at the point of wanting no government at all or anarchy. I believe there are legitimate government functions. There is a legitimate need in an orderly society for some government to maintain freedom or we will have tyranny by individuals. The strongest man on the block will run the neighborhood. We have government to insure that we don't each one of us have to carry a club to defend ourselves. But again, I stand on my statement that I think that libertarianism and conservatism are travelling the same path.
. . . REASON: Governor if the Republicans were to nominate a candidate that was unacceptable to you in 1976, could you support a Libertarian third party candidate?
REAGAN: I have to wait and see what you're doing and what you are standing for.
REASON: Are there any particular books or authors or economists that have been influential in terms of your intellectual development?
REAGAN: Oh, it would be hard for me to pinpoint anything in that category. I'm an inveterate reader. Bastiat and von Mises, and Hayek and Hazlitt--I'm one for the classical economists. . . .
REASON: What about Rand or Rothbard?
REAGAN: No. I haven't read Ayn Rand since The Fountainhead. I haven't read Atlas Shrugged. The last few years, I must say, have been a little rough on me for doing that kind of reading--for eight years I found that when I finished reading the memorandums and reports and so forth, then I found myself digging into nonfiction, economists and so forth, for help on the problems that were confronting me.
He gets into victimless crimes, Vietnam, the United Nations, Jerry Brown, isolationism versus interventionism, the effects of third parties, fair forms of taxation, and how he broke with his original Democratic Party affiliation.
Why was I not aware of this sort of thing years ago? Well, because years ago I was still being suckered by the mainstream media, of course, and the mainstream media didn't want me to know.
I was cheated. Ronald Reagan was cheated. A lot of people were cheated for a very long time.
By coincidence, I've got the day off from work. I've got C-SPAN on in the background, and they're showing crowds of people filing past Reagan's casket as it lies in the Reagan Presidential Library, to pay their last respects. If I were closer to Simi Valley, I'd be sorely tempted to join them.
Sunday, June 06, 2004
Ronald Reagan, 1911-2004.
Reagan, writing in 1963:
I found this passage on page 70 of the January/February 2003 issue of The American Spectator, in a review of the book Reagan's War: The Epic Story of His Forty-Year Struggle and Final Triumph Over Communism; I was unable to find the review on the Spectator website.If we relieve the strain on the shaken Russian economy by aiding their enslaved satellites, thus reducing the danger of uprising and revolution, and if we continue granting concessions which reduce our military strength, giving Russia time to improve hers as well as shore up her limping industrial complex--aren't we perhaps adding to the Communist belief that their system will through evolution catch up and pass ours?
If we truly believe that our way of life is best aren't the Russians more likely to recognize that fact and modify their stand if we let their economy come unhinged so the contrast is apparent? Inhuman though it may sound, shouldn't we throw the whole burden of feeding the satellites on their slave masters who are having trouble feeding themselves?
Reagan certainly perceived the danger of subsidizing one's enemy.
A thought experiment: Reread the above passage, and substitute "European" for "Russian" and "EU" for "Communist." Admittedly, it's an imperfect fit; though a lot of Europeans are chafing under the yoke of Brussels, I wouldn't exactly call them enslaved. But there are sufficient parallels so that I wonder: What would happen to the overburdened socialized medical systems of the European countries if American drug companies forced them to pay fair market value for American-made medications? What would happen to the national economies of France and Germany if the U.S. withdrew from NATO and forced Europe to pay for its own defense? Hell, even France's vaunted "cultural exception" is underwritten by America -- a tax on box office receipts of blockbuster American movies subsidizes the French film industry.
Since eventual price controls in the American drug market may force Big Pharma to demand concessions from the rest of the world, and since the European-American alliance appears to be enacting a slow-motion death scene, this is one thought experiment that might someday turn into the real thing.
Thursday, June 03, 2004
Dan Dickinson has a piece in The Weekly Standard called "Reuters' Angry Iraqi," summing up the ludicrous use of man-on-the-street quotes by several Reuters reporters since the start of the war. The cumulative effect of all the negative quotes almost makes me want to laugh at its sheer lack of believability . . . until I remember what the consequences of all this biased reporting could turn out to be, at which point I get angry all over again.
Another enlightening BuzzChart from Jerry Bowyer. This one shows "profit support per new job."
The graphic nature of the chart means that it looks even more impressive than it sounds.What makes a boom different from a bubble? The answer is sustainability. Both booms and bubbles represent periods of rapid expansion: The difference between them is that a bubble is hollow and a boom is solid. Was the explosive jobs growth of the final Clinton years a boom or a bubble? How about the rapid but not explosive jobs growth this year under Bush?
In order to answer these questions, BuzzCharts has created a new employment-related statistical indicator -- the jobs sustainability ratio. Here's how it works: BuzzCharts has taken the quarterly profits as calculated by Economy.com and the rise in profits from quarter to quarter, and used those numbers to create a ratio which serves as a way to measure the sustainability of new jobs created during the same quarter. In other words, the jobs sustainability ratio is the average amount of new profit backing up each new job on a quarterly basis.
For establishment economists this statistic is very confusing, but for actual real-world entrepreneurs nothing could be clearer. Businesses are able to hire and retain people only to the degree that these new people generate additional profit. The jobs sustainability ratio tells us, therefore, the "solidness" of the jobs that were created at the end of the Clinton boom compared with the jobs that are being created now.
The numbers are dazzlingly clear: During the late 1990s, rapid jobs growth was supported by weak growth in profits. Not so under Bush. In fact, in the first three years of the Bush administration, each new job was backed up by an average increase in profits of $285,000. Unfortunately, during the last three years of the Clinton administration each new job was backed by an average decrease of $28,000. It's no wonder that those jobs did not last long and were entirely swept away by the first recession that appeared.
Ironically, the fact that jobs are not appearing at a hyper-growth rate during this current recovery demonstrates most conclusively that this is boom, not a bubble.
Looking forward to tomorrow's release of job figures, have a glance at this typically optimistic analysis of the economy by Larry Kudlow:
Unfortunately it's not all that surprising that we're not hearing about this good news -- part of it is the media's fault, but part of it is the depressingly familiar routine of the Bush administration failing to put its case strongly to the public. For those of us who would like to see Bush receive the credit he's due, it's getting pretty exasperating.Election-year battleground states in the Midwest industrial heartland are reporting significantly lower unemployment rates compared to one year ago, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In April, Michigan registered a 6 percent jobless rate compared to 7.2 percent in April 2003. Ohio's jobless rate fell to 5.8 percent from 6.2 percent. Pennsylvania's dropped to 4.9 percent from 5.4 percent. West Virginia reported 5.4 percent from 6.6 percent a year earlier. Missouri's jobless tally dropped to 4.5 percent from 5.5 percent.
In view of the political significance of these states, it's surprising that administration officials are not loudly commenting on the remarkable ISM manufacturing report, including its sensitive jobs component. Did anyone say outsourcing? Did anyone say "hollowed out"? The naysaying is nonsense. The ISM numbers are consistent with 7.3 percent breakneck growth of gross domestic product.
Tuesday, June 01, 2004
Mostly good news concerning how our best allies are doing. I'd been wondering about this, concerned in particular about John Howard, who last I heard (via Tim Blair) had plunged in the polls. And of course there's still Blair (Tony, not Tim) to worry about. But, for the moment at least, things generally seem to be looking up. Arthur Chrenkoff has the round-up.
